Progress chart

A progress chart (also known as a chances graph) shows the actual distribution of levels attained by pupils in a given prior attainment band.

This can serve as a guide when considering the chance of a pupil (with a known prior attainment) of gaining a particular level. A more refined approach now available to us is the use of a transition matrix for help when setting target.

The example shows that 59% of pupils across the country with an average point score of between 26 and 28 (approximately 4b) at Key Stage 2 will gain a level 5 in science national tests at Key Stage 3, while only 19% of them will gain a level 6.